Tyler Ponder

College Basketball Analysis

I have analyzed college basketball data to try to determine which teams are 'best' and predict game outcomes. There are a lot of ways to go about ranking teams - here I give a few very simple metrics. The data used here is just final scores - analysis of other game data is not available here.

Linear Regression

Simple linear regression can be used evualate teams pretty well. Each team has an offense and defense coefficient. If team A plays team B, team A's score is predicted by an intercept (based on home/away) plus team A's offense coefficient plus team B's defense coefficient. The coefficients of all teams are set to minimize mean squared error of predicted scores across all games. A team's overall score is its offense score minus defense score. A team's 'variance' is the (overall) mean squared error for games that team played in.

	Team	W	L	Overall	Offense	Defense	Variance
1	Oregon	31	2	40.819	28.316	-12.503	137.1
2	Baylor	28	2	39.559	20.886	-18.673	123.1
3	South Carolina	32	1	39.477	23.151	-16.325	131.6
4	Maryland	28	4	37.686	23.976	-13.710	225.6
5	Connecticut	29	3	36.275	18.681	-17.594	154.8
6	Mississippi St	27	6	28.343	19.560	-8.783	156.7
7	Louisville	28	4	26.793	12.292	-14.501	121.8
8	Stanford	27	6	26.712	14.480	-12.232	141.7
9	Indiana	24	8	26.128	13.610	-12.518	117.2
10	Oregon St	23	9	24.572	11.867	-12.705	95.3
11	Princeton	26	1	24.498	7.600	-16.898	87.8
12	Northwestern	26	4	24.328	9.965	-14.363	152.9
13	South Dakota	29	2	24.113	13.974	-10.139	144.4
14	Arkansas	24	8	23.898	22.946	-0.952	151.3
15	NC State	28	4	23.630	11.904	-11.726	93.0
16	Florida St	24	8	21.843	13.398	-8.445	102.5
17	Texas A&M	22	8	21.806	10.859	-10.947	103.3
18	Kentucky	22	8	21.633	12.047	-9.586	138.3
19	UCLA	26	5	21.606	14.116	-7.490	105.1
20	Arizona	24	7	21.459	8.133	-13.326	115.9
21	Iowa	23	7	20.904	19.335	-1.569	172.1
22	Ohio St	21	12	20.206	12.682	-7.524	146.4
23	DePaul	28	5	19.902	24.653	4.751	80.1
24	Gonzaga	28	3	19.852	5.101	-14.751	89.2
25	Michigan	21	11	18.702	11.119	-7.583	102.8
26	FL Gulf Coast	27	3	18.024	13.331	-4.692	99.1
27	Rutgers	22	9	17.950	5.676	-12.274	91.5
28	Georgia Tech	20	11	17.748	1.394	-16.354	135.4
29	Iowa St	18	11	17.623	10.861	-6.763	123.5
30	Arizona St	20	11	17.109	5.996	-11.113	95.5
31	Duke	18	12	17.104	8.951	-8.153	132.8
32	Virginia Tech	21	9	17.004	11.119	-5.885	98.2
33	TCU	22	7	16.987	10.522	-6.465	75.6
34	Tennessee	21	10	16.978	9.040	-7.938	141.6
35	James Madison	25	4	16.307	7.574	-8.733	126.1
36	Alabama	18	12	16.285	11.318	-4.967	157.2
37	Texas	19	11	16.131	9.493	-6.638	172.1
38	Missouri St	25	4	15.996	13.777	-2.218	94.6
39	Drake	21	8	15.512	19.092	3.580	104.3
40	Marquette	24	8	14.994	7.498	-7.495	99.9
41	Seton Hall	19	12	14.663	12.117	-2.547	144.5
42	Kansas St	16	13	14.376	7.723	-6.652	101.1
43	LSU	20	10	14.374	4.444	-9.930	127.5
44	Oklahoma St	15	15	13.847	5.044	-8.803	142.0
45	North Carolina	16	14	13.653	12.413	-1.241	138.1
46	Texas Tech	18	11	13.462	16.032	2.570	203.3
47	Boston College	20	12	13.361	14.406	1.045	167.8
48	Nebraska	17	13	13.292	9.202	-4.090	59.0
49	UCF	20	10	13.089	2.208	-10.882	150.8
50	Michigan St	16	14	12.990	9.437	-3.553	141.6
51	South Florida	19	13	12.981	3.359	-9.621	158.3
52	Purdue	18	14	12.897	4.444	-8.453	117.2
53	St John's	19	12	12.814	11.866	-0.949	122.6
54	West Virginia	17	12	12.775	3.119	-9.656	114.3
55	Syracuse	16	15	12.686	9.385	-3.302	143.0
56	Virginia	13	17	12.536	4.174	-8.363	105.6
57	Minnesota	16	15	12.272	10.422	-1.850	147.0
58	S Dakota St	22	10	12.155	4.799	-7.356	126.7
59	Penn	19	7	11.639	3.748	-7.891	137.1
60	USC	17	14	11.577	6.038	-5.539	77.1
61	Creighton	19	11	11.572	5.480	-6.091	80.0
62	Cincinnati	22	10	11.413	8.938	-2.475	100.9
63	Washington	13	17	11.308	6.261	-5.047	112.4
64	Georgia	17	14	11.301	4.023	-7.279	154.6
65	IUPUI	22	8	11.288	5.342	-5.946	86.9
66	Washington St	11	20	10.737	8.061	-2.676	118.6
67	Colorado	16	14	10.339	4.097	-6.242	125.9
68	Northern Iowa	17	11	10.291	5.810	-4.480	118.8
69	Old Dominion	24	6	10.198	2.308	-7.890	114.2
70	Oklahoma	12	18	10.143	16.596	6.453	160.2
71	Montana St	23	6	9.976	10.179	0.203	86.4
72	Wake Forest	16	16	9.830	6.132	-3.698	157.2
73	Dayton	25	8	9.557	2.946	-6.611	87.2
74	Rice	21	8	9.201	2.513	-6.688	100.4
75	Ohio	19	11	8.968	9.830	0.862	66.4
76	MTSU	21	9	8.880	8.208	-0.672	118.9
77	Vanderbilt	14	16	8.818	6.593	-2.225	158.4
78	WKU	22	7	8.799	10.301	1.502	88.9
79	Notre Dame	13	18	8.765	6.069	-2.696	163.7
80	Utah	14	17	8.665	8.852	0.188	129.7
81	Yale	19	8	8.323	5.488	-2.835	154.0
82	Miami FL	15	15	8.284	4.512	-3.772	133.1
83	Bucknell	24	6	8.219	0.197	-8.022	115.5
84	C Michigan	23	7	8.189	12.443	4.254	110.8
85	Bradley	21	7	8.179	4.040	-4.139	105.5
86	S Illinois	16	13	7.862	3.994	-3.869	121.6
87	Villanova	18	13	7.813	0.387	-7.426	146.2
88	BYU	17	11	7.646	-4.311	-11.958	80.1
89	Illinois St	18	10	7.573	4.892	-2.681	85.8
90	Fordham	21	11	7.489	-1.540	-9.029	101.4
91	Marist	26	4	7.376	7.673	0.297	79.8
92	California	12	19	7.322	7.896	0.574	132.2
93	Wisconsin	12	19	7.286	4.514	-2.773	60.5
94	Kansas	15	14	6.994	7.869	0.876	119.4
95	TN Martin	22	10	6.875	6.085	-0.789	167.3
96	Troy	23	4	6.730	14.440	7.710	116.9
97	Auburn	11	18	6.598	7.906	1.308	136.2
98	North Alabama	19	9	6.370	7.926	1.556	132.3
99	St Louis	19	13	6.356	-1.194	-7.550	106.3
100	Butler	19	11	6.337	0.669	-5.669	117.6
101	UAB	18	11	6.302	6.576	0.274	122.5
102	WI Green Bay	19	13	5.950	0.666	-5.284	126.0
103	Coastal Car	23	4	5.755	8.621	2.866	133.6
104	SF Austin	20	6	5.697	-0.269	-5.966	198.8
105	Boise St	22	9	5.692	9.074	3.382	93.7
106	Florida	15	15	5.679	2.201	-3.478	150.2
107	Drexel	23	7	5.576	-3.510	-9.086	130.2
108	UT Arlington	21	11	5.551	1.223	-4.328	151.7
109	Portland	19	11	5.527	5.684	0.158	120.9
110	Fresno St	23	7	5.442	9.569	4.127	138.3
111	Pacific	17	14	5.342	5.883	0.541	105.6
112	Missouri	9	22	5.318	6.404	1.086	90.1
113	Liberty	20	11	4.975	4.425	-0.551	139.8
114	SE Missouri St	23	7	4.841	7.201	2.360	149.0
115	Duquesne	20	11	4.778	6.785	2.007	126.1
116	Belmont	22	9	4.650	-1.361	-6.011	236.1
117	William & Mary	21	8	4.562	5.711	1.149	81.2
118	Temple	16	15	4.464	8.755	4.290	142.9
119	Robert Morris	22	7	4.358	-2.514	-6.872	124.3
120	Columbia	17	10	4.313	6.360	2.046	166.7
121	VCU	20	12	4.271	-3.028	-7.299	130.2
122	Idaho	22	9	4.226	-0.693	-4.919	128.5
123	Ball St	20	10	4.174	1.431	-2.743	47.6
124	Charlotte	21	9	4.041	-0.387	-4.428	151.2
125	Massachusetts	19	11	3.557	2.013	-1.544	157.5
126	San Diego	19	11	3.377	-3.684	-7.061	128.2
127	Clemson	8	23	3.199	0.232	-2.967	121.8
128	Buffalo	19	12	3.198	3.289	0.091	96.2
129	Kent	18	11	2.991	4.264	1.273	69.5
130	Loyola-Chicago	15	14	2.840	1.126	-1.714	92.8
131	Valparaiso	17	12	2.730	3.264	0.533	118.9
132	Lehigh	18	11	2.492	1.546	-0.946	117.2
133	Rider	26	4	2.477	0.752	-1.725	137.1
134	UTEP	16	14	2.326	5.131	2.805	155.2
135	Harvard	15	12	2.256	-3.945	-6.201	151.2
136	Davidson	15	15	2.066	2.995	0.929	90.6
137	Providence	13	19	1.898	-2.805	-4.704	146.8
138	Tulane	14	17	1.809	-3.228	-5.037	80.8
139	Jacksonville	16	12	1.768	3.863	2.096	89.8
140	Elon	13	16	1.746	-0.927	-2.673	151.8
141	Idaho St	16	13	1.720	-1.101	-2.822	115.6
142	Wyoming	16	12	1.703	-2.262	-3.965	182.8
143	Abilene Chr	20	5	1.637	9.542	7.905	113.4
144	Stony Brook	27	3	1.412	-1.925	-3.337	92.6
145	Santa Clara	11	19	1.405	4.468	3.063	137.8
146	Colgate	19	11	1.246	5.511	4.265	100.0
147	Wright St	18	12	1.169	2.552	1.383	149.8
148	Holy Cross	19	11	1.103	1.168	0.065	118.9
149	W Michigan	17	13	1.098	2.229	1.132	82.0
150	TX Southern	20	10	0.862	5.275	4.413	142.0
151	Cornell	10	16	0.647	-0.593	-1.240	94.3
152	New Mexico	14	17	0.619	9.376	8.756	192.0
153	North Florida	14	15	0.609	-2.189	-2.798	120.8
154	Pepperdine	14	15	0.572	1.748	1.176	143.2
155	Penn St	7	23	0.484	7.059	6.575	109.7
156	Montana	15	13	0.446	1.563	1.117	123.4
157	UC Davis	16	12	0.409	0.331	-0.078	94.2
158	Memphis	14	17	0.276	3.703	3.427	158.9
159	St Mary's CA	12	19	0.270	6.879	6.610	102.2
160	N Kentucky	20	12	0.249	0.090	-0.159	127.7
161	Toledo	14	17	0.215	0.882	0.666	114.0
162	Akron	15	15	0.199	0.147	-0.052	86.0
163	Bethune-Cookman	21	6	0.127	-0.825	-0.951	127.8
164	E Michigan	15	15	0.065	0.103	0.038	116.9
165	Samford	17	14	-0.058	-0.100	-0.042	175.8
166	San Jose St	18	12	-0.070	7.519	7.589	128.9
167	G Washington	14	16	-0.447	-5.679	-5.232	106.8
168	Hawaii	15	14	-0.623	-2.255	-1.632	143.0
169	Wichita St	16	15	-0.698	0.097	0.795	134.5
170	North Texas	10	18	-0.813	-0.047	0.766	117.7
171	SMU	13	16	-0.865	-4.869	-4.004	92.6
172	Towson	13	15	-0.947	3.205	4.153	104.9
173	Richmond	15	17	-1.086	-0.624	0.463	69.2
174	Illinois	11	19	-1.119	0.987	2.105	73.4
175	UNC Greensboro	20	9	-1.128	-5.335	-4.207	93.6
176	Bowling Green	8	21	-1.144	6.005	7.149	145.1
177	Rhode Island	13	16	-1.381	-0.611	0.771	152.6
178	N Illinois	11	19	-1.492	3.138	4.630	69.3
179	Boston Univ	18	12	-1.524	-5.964	-4.440	91.5
180	UNLV	13	17	-1.580	-5.632	-4.052	153.1
181	Oral Roberts	13	16	-1.595	1.607	3.202	130.2
182	E Illinois	18	12	-1.634	-1.936	-0.303	181.9
183	San Francisco	12	19	-1.667	1.355	3.022	82.7
184	Kennesaw	11	16	-1.769	4.202	5.971	103.2
185	Georgetown	5	25	-1.774	-4.510	-2.736	52.4
186	St Joseph's PA	9	20	-1.829	-9.468	-7.639	111.9
187	Binghamton	21	9	-1.861	-0.066	1.794	96.0
188	NC A&T	17	10	-1.910	-4.433	-2.523	169.3
189	TAM C. Christi	20	7	-1.936	-7.478	-5.541	106.5
190	Xavier	3	27	-1.953	-0.275	1.679	99.6
191	Houston	12	19	-2.150	-0.508	1.642	95.6
192	Tennessee Tech	15	13	-2.172	1.661	3.833	109.7
193	Northern Arizona	16	15	-2.235	4.971	7.206	102.1
194	Northeastern	13	16	-2.394	-1.024	1.370	106.1
195	Delaware	12	17	-2.466	-0.076	2.391	135.3
196	Campbell	19	8	-2.470	-8.868	-6.398	161.8
197	Sam Houston St	16	10	-2.494	5.650	8.144	143.8
198	Merrimack	18	9	-2.634	-2.217	0.417	113.0
199	Cleveland St	19	11	-2.655	-1.056	1.599	165.6
200	Jackson St	19	10	-2.664	0.131	2.795	119.7
201	Norfolk St	18	11	-2.765	-3.068	-0.303	129.2
202	Nevada	14	16	-2.767	1.501	4.267	77.3
203	Louisiana	17	12	-2.833	-1.959	0.874	117.7
204	Lafayette	15	14	-2.907	-7.442	-4.534	99.5
205	Louisiana Tech	13	15	-2.977	-0.260	2.717	155.7
206	American Univ	13	17	-3.002	-5.258	-2.256	111.3
207	South Alabama	14	16	-3.158	1.856	5.014	108.1
208	Miami OH	10	20	-3.170	6.314	9.484	103.3
209	Southern Utah	18	13	-3.503	3.070	6.572	99.0
210	Denver	14	15	-3.522	10.925	14.448	122.5
211	Austin Peay	16	12	-3.535	0.341	3.876	126.9
212	Furman	16	12	-3.541	-0.963	2.579	110.4
213	Portland St	15	16	-3.667	2.073	5.739	172.0
214	FL Atlantic	13	17	-3.691	1.725	5.416	136.4
215	Colorado St	10	18	-3.699	-6.454	-2.755	77.8
216	UC Santa Barbara	13	15	-3.839	-5.200	-1.360	68.2
217	La Salle	13	17	-3.982	-0.666	3.316	130.5
218	Mt St Mary's	19	11	-4.049	0.029	4.078	133.0
219	CS Fullerton	17	14	-4.146	2.231	6.377	104.4
220	Pittsburgh	5	26	-4.164	-2.688	1.477	72.6
221	George Mason	9	21	-4.183	-2.123	2.060	103.2
222	Manhattan	15	14	-4.222	-5.006	-0.784	165.4
223	Wofford	12	15	-4.369	-0.962	3.407	129.6
224	Gardner Webb	18	11	-4.527	-1.171	3.356	99.2
225	Missouri KC	19	10	-4.661	-3.619	1.042	108.4
226	Stetson	9	18	-4.802	-6.792	-1.990	107.3
227	Quinnipiac	15	14	-4.817	1.956	6.774	118.6
228	Radford	17	12	-4.819	-6.799	-1.980	136.9
229	San Diego St	13	17	-4.842	-2.600	2.242	90.7
230	Hampton	18	11	-5.007	-1.874	3.132	210.1
231	Southern Miss	13	15	-5.098	-1.784	3.313	104.9
232	High Point	16	13	-5.332	2.620	7.951	176.3
233	Marshall	11	17	-5.374	-3.867	1.508	104.1
234	Air Force	9	21	-5.394	-4.285	1.109	118.8
235	Southern Univ	14	14	-5.523	-7.311	-1.788	116.7
236	UNC Wilmington	9	19	-5.557	-6.662	-1.105	161.6
237	Alabama A&M	17	13	-5.587	-5.836	-0.248	62.5
238	Maine	17	14	-5.622	-3.253	2.369	128.9
239	Loy Marymount	6	25	-5.733	-0.642	5.091	83.6
240	W Illinois	12	15	-5.763	5.624	11.388	99.4
241	Tulsa	9	21	-5.891	-5.316	0.575	96.5
242	East Carolina	9	21	-5.928	-6.602	-0.674	75.7
243	Fairfield	16	14	-5.971	-8.767	-2.796	188.2
244	Jacksonville St	12	16	-6.284	-8.564	-2.279	147.3
245	UC Irvine	12	18	-6.295	0.894	7.190	107.7
246	N Colorado	13	18	-6.380	-5.387	0.993	179.0
247	N Dakota St	9	19	-6.419	0.503	6.922	55.5
248	Ark Little Rock	12	19	-6.434	-10.115	-3.681	106.4
249	SE Louisiana	11	17	-6.643	-6.109	0.535	83.6
250	CS Northridge	11	19	-6.826	-7.466	-0.640	107.5
251	Morgan St	15	13	-7.013	-6.934	0.080	88.7
252	WI Milwaukee	14	16	-7.019	-6.580	0.439	102.2
253	Loyola MD	8	22	-7.111	-4.699	2.412	113.7
254	Mississippi	7	23	-7.139	-6.971	0.168	154.3
255	New Orleans	15	12	-7.308	-3.093	4.215	110.2
256	Long Beach St	12	17	-7.510	-8.737	-1.227	103.3
257	North Dakota	13	15	-7.755	1.372	9.126	100.8
258	Indiana St	5	25	-7.825	-4.258	3.567	55.3
259	Ga Southern	10	20	-7.853	-0.358	7.494	169.0
260	St Bonaventure	7	23	-7.897	-5.786	2.111	80.8
261	Appalachian St	11	19	-8.045	-5.531	2.514	105.2
262	Morehead St	8	20	-8.138	-3.302	4.836	135.9
263	Dartmouth	10	17	-8.247	-7.263	0.984	99.7
264	Cal Poly	10	18	-8.288	-9.989	-1.701	145.4
265	Seattle	10	16	-8.447	0.017	8.463	143.9
266	CS Bakersfield	13	13	-8.547	-8.828	-0.281	119.5
267	Texas St	11	17	-8.667	-5.290	3.377	96.7
268	Utah St	7	23	-8.814	-7.327	1.487	103.7
269	Howard	16	15	-8.848	1.020	9.868	196.4
270	Army	9	22	-8.861	0.061	8.922	106.4
271	Utah Valley	10	16	-9.344	-6.840	2.504	141.7
272	UTRGV	9	17	-9.432	-1.670	7.761	97.0
273	Cal Baptist	13	15	-9.498	4.669	14.167	222.1
274	UNC Asheville	14	14	-9.509	-8.380	1.128	232.8
275	Chattanooga	11	18	-9.525	-8.042	1.483	173.8
276	Longwood	12	18	-9.550	1.829	11.379	65.8
277	Brown	8	19	-9.758	-0.210	9.548	197.2
278	Lipscomb	6	23	-9.919	-2.165	7.754	82.8
279	Navy	6	23	-9.933	-11.417	-1.484	122.7
280	New Mexico St	11	18	-10.155	-6.768	3.388	123.2
281	Youngstown St	11	17	-10.173	-2.457	7.716	180.8
282	Oakland	9	19	-10.530	-0.727	9.804	107.5
283	Grand Canyon	13	12	-10.789	-10.207	0.582	84.6
284	Monmouth NJ	9	22	-10.916	-14.187	-3.271	100.0
285	Nicholls St	11	16	-11.052	-3.630	7.422	58.0
286	Presbyterian	10	18	-11.150	-9.921	1.229	145.6
287	MA Lowell	16	15	-11.562	-7.729	3.834	93.7
288	UC Riverside	8	22	-11.711	-5.825	5.887	111.8
289	Col Charleston	12	17	-11.731	0.064	11.795	157.2
290	Lamar	8	19	-11.789	-8.485	3.304	118.2
291	New Hampshire	9	19	-11.807	-8.773	3.034	69.9
292	NE Omaha	5	23	-11.895	-7.911	3.984	81.7
293	Arkansas St	10	19	-11.911	-2.265	9.646	140.8
294	Mercer	7	23	-11.920	-6.774	5.146	89.8
295	UMBC	9	18	-12.063	-9.394	2.669	85.4
296	Cent Arkansas	10	16	-12.331	-12.534	-0.203	149.1
297	E Kentucky	10	18	-12.444	-9.822	2.622	201.2
298	SUNY Albany	8	21	-12.454	-12.413	0.042	86.9
299	Sacred Heart	12	17	-12.523	-8.085	4.438	99.0
300	NC Central	12	16	-12.644	-2.096	10.549	114.0
301	Delaware St	10	18	-12.696	-5.869	6.827	98.8
302	Incarnate Word	10	15	-12.913	-10.699	2.215	171.7
303	Vermont	11	18	-12.986	-6.706	6.280	87.2
304	F Dickinson	13	17	-13.039	-11.114	1.925	80.3
305	ETSU	8	21	-13.678	-6.141	7.537	167.5
306	CS Sacramento	6	22	-13.723	2.641	16.363	155.7
307	Iona	9	21	-13.821	-13.415	0.406	117.7
308	Murray St	12	16	-13.885	-1.450	12.435	257.2
309	St Peter's	9	21	-14.372	1.368	15.740	126.1
310	Niagara	10	21	-14.416	-1.992	12.424	138.0
311	Wagner	9	20	-14.632	-8.122	6.510	112.5
312	Florida Intl	6	23	-14.692	-14.005	0.686	79.3
313	Prairie View	9	19	-14.717	-12.499	2.218	148.1
314	Bryant	10	20	-14.803	-10.325	4.478	127.0
315	Siena	11	20	-14.803	-10.164	4.639	195.8
316	Georgia St	8	21	-14.879	-9.453	5.427	131.2
317	Winthrop	11	19	-14.887	-9.989	4.898	183.4
318	St Francis PA	11	19	-15.253	-9.745	5.507	99.6
319	Houston Bap	6	21	-15.437	-7.278	8.159	127.2
320	E Washington	3	26	-15.797	-8.174	7.623	99.3
321	Evansville	2	26	-15.813	-7.859	7.954	141.7
322	SIUE	3	25	-16.184	-8.946	7.238	102.2
323	Alcorn St	11	18	-16.428	-6.797	9.631	175.4
324	MD E Shore	8	21	-16.487	-10.964	5.524	150.1
325	LIU Brooklyn	8	22	-16.709	-7.847	8.862	176.4
326	St Francis NY	7	21	-16.717	-2.773	13.944	163.5
327	Central Conn	4	25	-17.386	-9.457	7.929	77.5
328	Hofstra	3	27	-17.558	-11.877	5.681	116.4
329	NJIT	4	25	-18.063	-10.761	7.302	119.7
330	Canisius	5	25	-18.244	-5.470	12.774	136.9
331	Weber St	4	26	-18.480	-8.232	10.248	146.3
332	ULM	3	26	-18.538	-13.189	5.349	90.3
333	Ark Pine Bluff	6	22	-18.891	-8.323	10.568	131.1
334	PFW	3	24	-19.109	-10.923	8.186	75.3
335	W Carolina	3	25	-19.114	-11.885	7.229	100.5
336	Hartford	1	28	-19.137	-11.793	7.344	97.2
337	Detroit	3	27	-19.334	-7.442	11.892	111.3
338	SC Upstate	8	20	-19.568	-11.770	7.798	127.0
339	Alabama St	7	21	-19.658	-7.143	12.515	120.2
340	UT San Antonio	3	23	-20.071	-7.833	12.238	171.1
341	Northwestern LA	5	21	-20.232	-11.141	9.091	97.2
342	Florida A&M	4	21	-20.420	-11.697	8.723	93.8
343	Grambling	4	24	-20.791	-6.681	14.110	128.9
344	McNeese St	3	24	-22.749	-5.242	17.507	68.4
345	Tennessee St	2	24	-22.768	-8.235	14.534	171.2
346	Charleston So	2	26	-24.213	-14.123	10.090	119.9
347	IL Chicago	3	27	-26.599	-16.495	10.103	114.7
348	Coppin St	3	26	-26.648	-16.398	10.250	154.4
349	S Carolina St	3	27	-28.310	-15.301	13.010	154.7
350	MS Valley St	2	27	-28.862	-8.834	20.027	164.3
351	Chicago St	1	27	-30.012	-8.438	21.574	136.9

Machine Learning

This is also pretty simple and useful, but approaches the problem in a different way. A small neural network is given raw game outcome data (team A defeated team B, not the score). The neural network learns which teams are better than others (more likely to win), and learns to predict winners of matchups. The Projected W% column shows the estimated winning percentage of each team if they played every other team an equal number of times.

	Team	W	L	vs All W%	vs T40 W%
1	South Carolina	32	1	0.98846	0.90959
2	Oregon	31	2	0.98235	0.86983
3	Baylor	28	2	0.97713	0.83872
4	Maryland	28	4	0.96520	0.76914
5	Connecticut	29	3	0.96399	0.76246
6	Princeton	26	1	0.95562	0.71346
7	Northwestern	26	4	0.95307	0.70243
8	Stanford	27	6	0.95203	0.69196
9	South Dakota	29	2	0.94415	0.65520
10	Louisville	28	4	0.94408	0.65985
11	UCLA	26	5	0.94149	0.64682
12	NC State	28	4	0.93228	0.60222
13	Indiana	24	8	0.93016	0.58982
14	Arizona	24	7	0.92038	0.55564
15	Missouri St	25	4	0.91939	0.54971
16	Mississippi St	27	6	0.91930	0.54191
17	Iowa	23	7	0.91677	0.54833
18	DePaul	28	5	0.91670	0.53364
19	Gonzaga	28	3	0.90895	0.50679
20	Oregon St	23	9	0.90435	0.47933
21	Ohio St	21	12	0.89906	0.46900
22	Florida St	24	8	0.88388	0.42914
23	FL Gulf Coast	27	3	0.88236	0.41108
24	Texas A&M	22	8	0.87745	0.39798
25	Michigan	21	11	0.87732	0.39067
26	TCU	22	7	0.87729	0.39721
27	Kentucky	22	8	0.87665	0.39658
28	Rutgers	22	9	0.86928	0.37236
29	Marquette	24	8	0.86669	0.35567
30	Arkansas	24	8	0.86450	0.35901
31	Drake	21	8	0.85127	0.31759
32	James Madison	25	4	0.84986	0.31492
33	Arizona St	20	11	0.84328	0.31224
34	LSU	20	10	0.83740	0.30337
35	Texas	19	11	0.83600	0.31151
36	Purdue	18	14	0.83591	0.29459
37	Virginia Tech	21	9	0.82747	0.27162
38	Tennessee	21	10	0.82320	0.25019
39	Duke	18	12	0.82180	0.26914
40	Iowa St	18	11	0.81348	0.24928
41	Bradley	21	7	0.81224	0.23874
42	C Michigan	23	7	0.80876	0.24611
43	Creighton	19	11	0.80525	0.24061
44	Georgia Tech	20	11	0.80037	0.23241
45	West Virginia	17	12	0.79901	0.24174
46	Nebraska	17	13	0.79535	0.20990
47	USC	17	14	0.79381	0.21331
48	Troy	23	4	0.79136	0.20397
49	Boston College	20	12	0.79056	0.21355
50	Michigan St	16	14	0.78761	0.21648
51	Marist	26	4	0.78453	0.20778
52	WKU	22	7	0.78329	0.19739
53	Seton Hall	19	12	0.78320	0.20343
54	Dayton	25	8	0.78058	0.18497
55	Alabama	18	12	0.77542	0.19439
56	Minnesota	16	15	0.77529	0.19148
57	Georgia	17	14	0.77386	0.19781
58	St John's	19	12	0.77313	0.18920
59	Butler	19	11	0.77160	0.18373
60	Cincinnati	22	10	0.77110	0.16751
61	Kansas St	16	13	0.76996	0.18912
62	Northern Iowa	17	11	0.76808	0.19082
63	Old Dominion	24	6	0.76688	0.17968
64	Texas Tech	18	11	0.76662	0.18303
65	Penn	19	7	0.76231	0.16614
66	UCF	20	10	0.76140	0.16682
67	Colorado	16	14	0.76126	0.17223
68	Drexel	23	7	0.76033	0.16830
69	Stony Brook	27	3	0.75956	0.16981
70	S Dakota St	22	10	0.75822	0.16685
71	Syracuse	16	15	0.75715	0.18105
72	MTSU	21	9	0.75326	0.16052
73	Illinois St	18	10	0.75092	0.16185
74	Virginia	13	17	0.74833	0.15748
75	Oklahoma St	15	15	0.74697	0.15788
76	Villanova	18	13	0.74085	0.16151
77	Yale	19	8	0.73587	0.14931
78	Bucknell	24	6	0.73580	0.15007
79	Charlotte	21	9	0.72432	0.13188
80	Rider	26	4	0.72217	0.13111
81	Belmont	22	9	0.72201	0.13222
82	Utah	14	17	0.72188	0.13911
83	Rice	21	8	0.71922	0.12285
84	Coastal Car	23	4	0.71693	0.12880
85	Ohio	19	11	0.71472	0.12694
86	South Florida	19	13	0.71463	0.12154
87	Kansas	15	14	0.71435	0.12155
88	IUPUI	22	8	0.71350	0.12138
89	Montana St	23	6	0.71179	0.11810
90	Ball St	20	10	0.71039	0.11850
91	North Carolina	16	14	0.70985	0.12405
92	Valparaiso	17	12	0.70686	0.11629
93	Kent	18	11	0.69690	0.11183
94	Miami FL	15	15	0.69605	0.10926
95	Oklahoma	12	18	0.69543	0.11851
96	Wake Forest	16	16	0.69328	0.12226
97	TN Martin	22	10	0.69313	0.09700
98	Notre Dame	13	18	0.69291	0.12663
99	SE Missouri St	23	7	0.68319	0.10585
100	Florida	15	15	0.68279	0.10424
101	Fordham	21	11	0.68113	0.09580
102	Washington St	11	20	0.67841	0.09288
103	S Illinois	16	13	0.67618	0.09954
104	St Louis	19	13	0.67368	0.09511
105	VCU	20	12	0.67261	0.09310
106	Vanderbilt	14	16	0.66874	0.09743
107	Wisconsin	12	19	0.66671	0.08464
108	California	12	19	0.66455	0.09706
109	William & Mary	21	8	0.66349	0.09176
110	Abilene Chr	20	5	0.65972	0.08853
111	Fresno St	23	7	0.65802	0.08613
112	Auburn	11	18	0.65178	0.07703
113	Washington	13	17	0.65049	0.09543
114	BYU	17	11	0.64887	0.08447
115	Boise St	22	9	0.64319	0.08135
116	Buffalo	19	12	0.64245	0.08381
117	Columbia	17	10	0.64170	0.08475
118	Liberty	20	11	0.64166	0.07910
119	Temple	16	15	0.63840	0.08345
120	SF Austin	20	6	0.63126	0.07258
121	Portland	19	11	0.62839	0.07444
122	UAB	18	11	0.62826	0.07360
123	Bethune-Cookman	21	6	0.62121	0.06796
124	Loyola-Chicago	15	14	0.62007	0.06580
125	TAM C. Christi	20	7	0.61689	0.06911
126	Duquesne	20	11	0.61340	0.06275
127	Idaho	22	9	0.61331	0.06817
128	WI Green Bay	19	13	0.61236	0.07093
129	UT Arlington	21	11	0.60638	0.06596
130	Harvard	15	12	0.60515	0.06608
131	San Diego	19	11	0.60308	0.06220
132	W Michigan	17	13	0.60035	0.06186
133	Illinois	11	19	0.58284	0.05087
134	Robert Morris	22	7	0.58278	0.05223
135	North Alabama	19	9	0.57846	0.05675
136	Colgate	19	11	0.57701	0.05115
137	Lehigh	18	11	0.57634	0.05375
138	Toledo	14	17	0.57342	0.05916
139	Davidson	15	15	0.57282	0.04880
140	Massachusetts	19	11	0.57276	0.05089
141	E Michigan	15	15	0.57222	0.05233
142	Wichita St	16	15	0.57032	0.04959
143	TX Southern	20	10	0.56485	0.05075
144	Holy Cross	19	11	0.56392	0.04720
145	Boston Univ	18	12	0.56039	0.04724
146	Providence	13	19	0.55974	0.04627
147	G Washington	14	16	0.55517	0.05161
148	Tulane	14	17	0.54794	0.04546
149	Akron	15	15	0.54500	0.04384
150	Pacific	17	14	0.54353	0.04654
151	North Florida	14	15	0.54276	0.04712
152	Richmond	15	17	0.53841	0.04220
153	N Illinois	11	19	0.53419	0.03724
154	UNC Greensboro	20	9	0.52811	0.04120
155	Missouri	9	22	0.52603	0.04141
156	Wright St	18	12	0.52443	0.03918
157	Austin Peay	16	12	0.52073	0.03494
158	Northeastern	13	16	0.51880	0.03611
159	Jacksonville	16	12	0.51146	0.03417
160	San Jose St	18	12	0.51075	0.03518
161	Memphis	14	17	0.50973	0.03869
162	N Kentucky	20	12	0.50834	0.03540
163	Wyoming	16	12	0.49675	0.03490
164	Samford	17	14	0.49629	0.03483
165	Sam Houston St	16	10	0.49482	0.03026
166	Pepperdine	14	15	0.49307	0.03173
167	E Illinois	18	12	0.49300	0.03183
168	Binghamton	21	9	0.49043	0.03283
169	Cleveland St	19	11	0.48600	0.02984
170	Jackson St	19	10	0.48587	0.03171
171	La Salle	13	17	0.48356	0.03012
172	Norfolk St	18	11	0.48252	0.03068
173	Campbell	19	8	0.48147	0.03028
174	Lafayette	15	14	0.47276	0.02782
175	Houston	12	19	0.47268	0.02741
176	Elon	13	16	0.47235	0.02695
177	Furman	16	12	0.47225	0.03056
178	Oral Roberts	13	16	0.47107	0.02726
179	Towson	13	15	0.46921	0.02784
180	UTEP	16	14	0.46609	0.02630
181	Rhode Island	13	16	0.46371	0.02601
182	NC A&T	17	10	0.46368	0.02889
183	UC Davis	16	12	0.46096	0.02743
184	Idaho St	16	13	0.46050	0.02804
185	Tennessee Tech	15	13	0.46038	0.02665
186	Hampton	18	11	0.45977	0.02636
187	SMU	13	16	0.45966	0.02882
188	Louisiana	17	12	0.45732	0.02572
189	St Mary's CA	12	19	0.45604	0.02609
190	Miami OH	10	20	0.45439	0.02298
191	Clemson	8	23	0.45249	0.02875
192	Montana	15	13	0.44964	0.02367
193	WI Milwaukee	14	16	0.44748	0.02476
194	W Illinois	12	15	0.44728	0.02370
195	Maine	17	14	0.44691	0.02595
196	San Francisco	12	19	0.44385	0.02436
197	Santa Clara	11	19	0.44302	0.02598
198	Northern Arizona	16	15	0.44182	0.02459
199	Hawaii	15	14	0.44140	0.02449
200	Delaware	12	17	0.44052	0.02418
201	American Univ	13	17	0.44018	0.02464
202	Southern Miss	13	15	0.43889	0.02224
203	Penn St	7	23	0.43710	0.02445
204	Merrimack	18	9	0.43582	0.02305
205	Missouri KC	19	10	0.43401	0.02239
206	Mt St Mary's	19	11	0.43303	0.02399
207	Dartmouth	10	17	0.43182	0.02221
208	FL Atlantic	13	17	0.42943	0.02177
209	New Orleans	15	12	0.42879	0.02167
210	South Alabama	14	16	0.42853	0.02229
211	Southern Utah	18	13	0.42815	0.02221
212	Gardner Webb	18	11	0.42678	0.02222
213	UNLV	13	17	0.42319	0.02244
214	North Dakota	13	15	0.42116	0.02142
215	Radford	17	12	0.41689	0.02111
216	Cornell	10	16	0.41397	0.01952
217	St Joseph's PA	9	20	0.41370	0.01993
218	Quinnipiac	15	14	0.41318	0.02051
219	Portland St	15	16	0.41122	0.02147
220	Louisiana Tech	13	15	0.41111	0.02145
221	Manhattan	15	14	0.40854	0.01788
222	New Mexico	14	17	0.40729	0.02055
223	Bowling Green	8	21	0.40223	0.01901
224	Tulsa	9	21	0.39513	0.01745
225	East Carolina	9	21	0.39440	0.01850
226	High Point	16	13	0.39304	0.01765
227	Kennesaw	11	16	0.39154	0.01703
228	CS Fullerton	17	14	0.38975	0.01939
229	Nevada	14	16	0.38936	0.01711
230	Marshall	11	17	0.38812	0.01963
231	Denver	14	15	0.38662	0.01813
232	Fairfield	16	14	0.37963	0.01638
233	George Mason	9	21	0.37745	0.01652
234	Ark Little Rock	12	19	0.37081	0.01559
235	N Colorado	13	18	0.36372	0.01632
236	North Texas	10	18	0.36330	0.01586
237	San Diego St	13	17	0.35915	0.01486
238	Jacksonville St	12	16	0.35670	0.01570
239	N Dakota St	9	19	0.35614	0.01357
240	Chattanooga	11	18	0.35365	0.01590
241	Murray St	12	16	0.35113	0.01420
242	Alabama A&M	17	13	0.35031	0.01407
243	Southern Univ	14	14	0.34972	0.01297
244	Georgetown	5	25	0.34914	0.01299
245	MA Lowell	16	15	0.34721	0.01307
246	UC Santa Barbara	13	15	0.34495	0.01359
247	Stetson	9	18	0.34087	0.01362
248	Texas St	11	17	0.33972	0.01430
249	Morgan St	15	13	0.33360	0.01320
250	Youngstown St	11	17	0.33245	0.01273
251	CS Bakersfield	13	13	0.33208	0.01404
252	Grand Canyon	13	12	0.33047	0.01216
253	Long Beach St	12	17	0.33028	0.01342
254	Wofford	12	15	0.32914	0.01252
255	Howard	16	15	0.32687	0.01247
256	Col Charleston	12	17	0.32660	0.01220
257	UC Irvine	12	18	0.32634	0.01248
258	CS Northridge	11	19	0.32377	0.01230
259	Brown	8	19	0.32048	0.01232
260	Pittsburgh	5	26	0.31915	0.01162
261	Arkansas St	10	19	0.31536	0.01197
262	Appalachian St	11	19	0.31316	0.01212
263	UNC Asheville	14	14	0.30627	0.01064
264	Colorado St	10	18	0.30530	0.01070
265	UNC Wilmington	9	19	0.30508	0.01113
266	St Bonaventure	7	23	0.30338	0.01116
267	Cent Arkansas	10	16	0.30267	0.01053
268	Army	9	22	0.30178	0.01020
269	SE Louisiana	11	17	0.29598	0.01024
270	Air Force	9	21	0.29577	0.01075
271	Nicholls St	11	16	0.29000	0.00989
272	Xavier	3	27	0.28863	0.00974
273	Cal Poly	10	18	0.28833	0.00970
274	E Kentucky	10	18	0.28809	0.01022
275	Oakland	9	19	0.28355	0.00903
276	Loyola MD	8	22	0.28319	0.00960
277	Mississippi	7	23	0.27849	0.00878
278	Cal Baptist	13	15	0.27764	0.00985
279	Incarnate Word	10	15	0.27181	0.00991
280	Loy Marymount	6	25	0.26744	0.00899
281	Ga Southern	10	20	0.26095	0.00850
282	NC Central	12	16	0.25752	0.00858
283	Indiana St	5	25	0.25694	0.00819
284	Longwood	12	18	0.25337	0.00808
285	Seattle	10	16	0.25236	0.00740
286	Lipscomb	6	23	0.25209	0.00761
287	ETSU	8	21	0.24628	0.00733
288	Siena	11	20	0.24551	0.00715
289	Morehead St	8	20	0.24455	0.00803
290	Iona	9	21	0.24440	0.00791
291	Utah St	7	23	0.24339	0.00746
292	Navy	6	23	0.23927	0.00743
293	Lamar	8	19	0.23778	0.00734
294	UC Riverside	8	22	0.23417	0.00713
295	New Mexico St	11	18	0.23318	0.00680
296	Utah Valley	10	16	0.23249	0.00715
297	Delaware St	10	18	0.22636	0.00668
298	Presbyterian	10	18	0.22607	0.00668
299	Niagara	10	21	0.22382	0.00628
300	Sacred Heart	12	17	0.22127	0.00616
301	New Hampshire	9	19	0.22008	0.00622
302	Winthrop	11	19	0.21657	0.00647
303	St Francis PA	11	19	0.21627	0.00628
304	Vermont	11	18	0.21612	0.00605
305	Monmouth NJ	9	22	0.21609	0.00630
306	F Dickinson	13	17	0.21550	0.00614
307	UTRGV	9	17	0.21506	0.00641
308	UMBC	9	18	0.20959	0.00628
309	Prairie View	9	19	0.20635	0.00584
310	CS Sacramento	6	22	0.20480	0.00583
311	Mercer	7	23	0.19950	0.00542
312	Florida Intl	6	23	0.19515	0.00530
313	NE Omaha	5	23	0.19195	0.00533
314	Alcorn St	11	18	0.18788	0.00472
315	Georgia St	8	21	0.18684	0.00515
316	St Peter's	9	21	0.17487	0.00470
317	MD E Shore	8	21	0.17264	0.00495
318	Bryant	10	20	0.16836	0.00434
319	SUNY Albany	8	21	0.16078	0.00426
320	Wagner	9	20	0.15661	0.00407
321	UT San Antonio	3	23	0.15458	0.00406
322	SC Upstate	8	20	0.15002	0.00375
323	Houston Bap	6	21	0.14284	0.00370
324	St Francis NY	7	21	0.14087	0.00355
325	Alabama St	7	21	0.14062	0.00345
326	Weber St	4	26	0.13619	0.00328
327	LIU Brooklyn	8	22	0.13000	0.00333
328	E Washington	3	26	0.12832	0.00313
329	Canisius	5	25	0.12815	0.00307
330	Ark Pine Bluff	6	22	0.12256	0.00303
331	Detroit	3	27	0.11610	0.00301
332	NJIT	4	25	0.11396	0.00290
333	Hofstra	3	27	0.11350	0.00263
334	Northwestern LA	5	21	0.10541	0.00256
335	PFW	3	24	0.09380	0.00219
336	IL Chicago	3	27	0.09211	0.00220
337	W Carolina	3	25	0.09005	0.00220
338	SIUE	3	25	0.08819	0.00202
339	Evansville	2	26	0.08150	0.00189
340	Tennessee St	2	24	0.07957	0.00186
341	Florida A&M	4	21	0.07851	0.00195
342	Grambling	4	24	0.07420	0.00181
343	Central Conn	4	25	0.06854	0.00158
344	McNeese St	3	24	0.06851	0.00163
345	ULM	3	26	0.06349	0.00154
346	Coppin St	3	26	0.05587	0.00141
347	Charleston So	2	26	0.04600	0.00117
348	S Carolina St	3	27	0.04580	0.00112
349	MS Valley St	2	27	0.03396	0.00089
350	Chicago St	1	27	0.03199	0.00088
351	Hartford	1	28	0.02113	0.00066