Tyler Ponder

College Basketball Analysis

I have analyzed college basketball data to try to determine which teams are 'best' and predict game outcomes. There are a lot of ways to go about ranking teams - here I give a few very simple metrics. The data used here is just final scores - analysis of other game data is not available here.

Linear Regression

Simple linear regression can be used evualate teams pretty well. Each team has an offense and defense coefficient. If team A plays team B, team A's score is predicted by an intercept (based on home/away) plus team A's offense coefficient plus team B's defense coefficient. The coefficients of all teams are set to minimize mean squared error of predicted scores across all games. A team's overall score is its offense score minus defense score. A team's 'variance' is the (overall) mean squared error for games that team played in.

	Team	W	L	Overall	Offense	Defense	Variance
1	Gonzaga	33	4	27.047	18.867	-8.180	141.9
2	Duke	32	6	25.128	17.270	-7.857	124.6
3	Virginia	35	3	23.921	4.956	-18.964	77.0
4	Michigan St	32	7	22.941	12.595	-10.346	79.5
5	North Carolina	29	7	22.488	19.701	-2.787	138.6
6	Texas Tech	31	7	21.033	5.718	-15.314	131.7
7	Michigan	30	7	19.794	3.830	-15.964	120.4
8	Purdue	26	10	19.669	12.057	-7.613	94.6
9	Kentucky	30	7	19.623	8.037	-11.586	141.1
10	Tennessee	30	6	19.510	14.293	-5.217	85.1
11	Auburn	29	10	18.974	12.846	-6.128	132.0
12	Virginia Tech	26	9	18.071	6.545	-11.527	80.7
13	Houston	33	4	17.528	6.219	-11.309	96.2
14	Florida St	29	8	16.493	8.604	-7.890	88.2
15	Kansas	26	10	16.409	10.536	-5.873	96.1
16	Iowa St	23	12	16.301	10.255	-6.046	113.9
17	Wisconsin	23	11	16.165	2.498	-13.666	78.3
18	Buffalo	31	4	16.039	15.196	-0.842	111.3
19	Louisville	20	14	15.505	8.107	-7.398	133.3
20	Nevada	29	5	15.282	9.670	-5.612	127.9
21	LSU	28	7	14.805	13.654	-1.151	49.0
22	Wofford	27	5	14.691	8.655	-6.036	111.7
23	Mississippi St	23	11	14.318	9.837	-4.481	76.2
24	Maryland	23	11	14.299	5.323	-8.976	91.2
25	Texas	21	16	13.860	4.171	-9.689	114.5
26	Kansas St	25	9	13.817	-1.597	-15.415	144.6
27	Florida	20	16	13.477	0.479	-12.998	93.7
28	Oklahoma	20	14	13.411	6.582	-6.830	127.5
29	NC State	24	12	13.392	12.342	-1.050	90.4
30	Cincinnati	28	7	13.027	2.485	-10.542	90.9
31	Marquette	24	10	12.955	8.202	-4.753	134.0
32	Nebraska	18	17	12.769	6.211	-6.557	155.5
33	Villanova	26	10	12.718	4.865	-7.853	103.2
34	Oregon	25	13	12.672	0.655	-12.017	162.9
35	Iowa	23	12	12.171	12.151	-0.019	114.0
36	UCF	24	9	12.085	2.968	-9.117	119.0
37	Clemson	20	14	12.067	1.558	-10.509	73.9
38	St Mary's CA	22	12	12.004	2.501	-9.503	144.4
39	Syracuse	20	14	11.834	3.023	-8.811	153.2
40	Ohio St	20	15	11.830	2.422	-9.408	118.3
41	Utah St	27	7	11.748	7.310	-4.437	94.9
42	TCU	23	14	11.714	7.346	-4.367	120.7
43	Baylor	20	14	11.689	4.985	-6.704	143.6
44	Indiana	19	16	11.635	4.570	-7.066	108.8
45	VCU	25	8	11.243	1.374	-9.869	116.4
46	Penn St	14	18	10.871	4.315	-6.556	71.0
47	Washington	27	9	10.687	1.215	-9.472	75.5
48	Mississippi	20	13	10.597	7.492	-3.105	103.1
49	Minnesota	22	14	10.575	5.159	-5.416	106.0
50	Lipscomb	27	8	10.426	11.043	0.617	127.8
51	Belmont	26	6	10.317	12.554	2.236	105.2
52	New Mexico St	28	5	10.302	4.656	-5.647	104.6
53	Creighton	19	15	10.211	8.482	-1.729	105.4
54	Arkansas	18	16	10.011	7.875	-2.136	100.1
55	Murray St	26	5	9.938	7.216	-2.721	147.1
56	Memphis	22	14	9.148	11.241	2.093	123.5
57	Arizona St	23	11	8.933	7.988	-0.944	141.1
58	Dayton	21	12	8.728	3.187	-5.541	96.3
59	San Francisco	20	10	8.697	5.009	-3.688	97.0
60	Furman	22	8	8.659	3.361	-5.298	122.8
61	Colorado	23	13	8.619	3.195	-5.424	122.2
62	Seton Hall	20	14	8.613	5.603	-3.011	77.3
63	Toledo	24	8	8.565	4.660	-3.905	113.6
64	Fresno St	22	9	8.015	4.255	-3.760	102.9
65	Alabama	18	16	8.003	4.477	-3.526	85.9
66	Miami FL	14	18	7.997	4.000	-3.997	86.3
67	Xavier	19	16	7.726	3.103	-4.622	79.8
68	Northwestern	13	19	7.659	-1.209	-8.868	71.9
69	Butler	16	17	7.584	3.768	-3.816	127.8
70	Rutgers	14	17	7.098	1.546	-5.553	122.5
71	S Dakota St	23	9	7.034	10.480	3.446	184.5
72	Temple	23	10	6.909	5.550	-1.360	48.4
73	Yale	21	8	6.881	9.225	2.343	90.9
74	Arizona	17	15	6.839	1.203	-5.635	136.4
75	USC	16	17	6.831	7.353	0.522	126.7
76	Illinois	12	21	6.713	7.379	0.666	143.3
77	Wichita St	22	15	6.673	2.125	-4.548	102.5
78	Providence	18	16	6.633	2.099	-4.534	102.8
79	South Carolina	15	16	6.593	5.278	-1.315	119.1
80	Oregon St	18	13	6.576	3.993	-2.583	85.1
81	Liberty	26	7	6.566	-1.964	-8.530	91.1
82	Missouri	15	17	6.482	-0.885	-7.367	112.8
83	St John's	21	13	6.482	7.613	1.131	143.3
84	Pittsburgh	14	19	6.408	1.257	-5.152	100.3
85	UC Irvine	30	6	6.383	0.689	-5.695	102.7
86	Vermont	26	7	6.380	0.936	-5.444	86.3
87	ETSU	22	10	6.354	3.928	-2.427	111.0
88	Oklahoma St	12	20	6.122	2.247	-3.875	122.1
89	San Diego	20	15	6.091	2.037	-4.054	78.2
90	Notre Dame	14	19	6.029	0.904	-5.124	87.6
91	Hofstra	26	8	6.016	9.902	3.886	116.0
92	BYU	19	13	5.886	9.894	4.008	110.6
93	Davidson	23	10	5.813	0.098	-5.715	66.2
94	UCLA	17	16	5.532	9.313	3.781	137.0
95	Georgia Tech	14	18	5.369	-1.945	-7.314	120.7
96	Connecticut	16	17	5.349	5.137	-0.212	100.6
97	UNC Greensboro	27	7	5.306	1.482	-3.825	90.0
98	Texas A&M	14	18	5.273	1.954	-3.319	120.6
99	Georgetown	19	14	5.182	9.886	4.705	114.7
100	West Virginia	15	21	5.171	7.704	2.534	126.7
101	N Kentucky	24	9	5.149	4.388	-0.761	66.0
102	Stanford	15	16	4.979	2.612	-2.366	171.3
103	Akron	15	16	4.948	-3.779	-8.727	141.2
104	Bowling Green	20	12	4.889	5.981	1.093	158.2
105	Utah	17	14	4.874	6.530	1.656	90.6
106	South Florida	23	14	4.831	0.159	-4.672	65.8
107	Northeastern	23	11	4.792	3.787	-1.004	104.0
108	Ga Southern	19	12	4.719	9.298	4.579	91.8
109	San Diego St	20	13	4.631	-0.463	-5.094	173.2
110	Grand Canyon	19	14	4.583	2.959	-1.624	116.0
111	SMU	15	17	4.488	2.738	-1.751	134.1
112	Utah Valley	23	10	4.288	4.128	-0.160	51.8
113	St Louis	23	13	4.282	-2.879	-7.160	99.4
114	DePaul	19	17	4.167	7.779	3.612	107.3
115	Boston College	14	17	4.126	3.152	-0.973	71.7
116	Ball St	15	17	3.916	3.718	-0.198	141.1
117	Harvard	18	12	3.842	1.222	-2.621	93.7
118	Loyola-Chicago	19	14	3.763	-4.928	-8.691	157.7
119	Southern Miss	17	12	3.753	-0.944	-4.697	197.6
120	Old Dominion	26	9	3.717	-5.204	-8.921	58.9
121	Jacksonville St	22	9	3.642	1.483	-2.159	120.0
122	Wright St	19	14	3.578	-0.250	-3.828	99.0
123	Georgia	11	21	3.563	2.450	-1.113	140.6
124	Tulsa	18	14	3.440	2.472	-0.968	79.6
125	WKU	20	14	3.412	1.734	-1.678	67.2
126	St Bonaventure	18	16	3.333	-3.690	-7.023	176.7
127	Loy Marymount	20	12	3.321	-5.660	-8.981	96.8
128	C Michigan	20	12	3.285	8.964	5.680	74.7
129	Colgate	23	11	3.273	3.428	0.155	89.3
130	Boise St	12	20	3.269	1.174	-2.095	122.2
131	Montana	24	9	3.251	1.961	-1.290	119.6
132	Col Charleston	23	9	3.173	0.411	-2.762	72.3
133	Penn	18	12	3.146	0.442	-2.705	112.2
134	Georgia St	23	10	3.098	4.516	1.418	87.6
135	Radford	19	11	3.073	0.398	-2.676	79.9
136	N Illinois	15	17	2.974	2.309	-0.665	104.9
137	Drake	22	10	2.747	4.590	1.844	93.4
138	Texas St	22	10	2.602	-3.645	-6.247	72.0
139	Rhode Island	18	15	2.553	0.558	-1.995	150.4
140	Austin Peay	20	11	2.409	5.747	3.338	62.5
141	Bucknell	21	12	2.171	4.985	2.814	149.6
142	Vanderbilt	9	23	1.826	-0.299	-2.125	123.0
143	Kent	20	11	1.816	3.869	2.053	97.7
144	ULM	18	16	1.796	5.096	3.300	89.8
145	Louisiana Tech	18	13	1.793	-0.747	-2.540	97.7
146	Samford	16	16	1.726	4.972	3.246	84.1
147	S Illinois	17	15	1.598	-1.956	-3.555	118.0
148	Pepperdine	15	18	1.445	5.670	4.225	103.1
149	Brown	18	12	1.428	0.552	-0.875	97.7
150	Miami OH	13	17	1.370	-0.683	-2.053	113.7
151	UT San Antonio	14	14	1.245	6.335	5.090	130.0
152	Coastal Car	15	17	0.878	4.239	3.361	126.5
153	UAB	18	15	0.845	-0.643	-1.488	83.6
154	UNLV	17	14	0.664	2.118	1.454	118.2
155	E Michigan	11	17	0.584	-4.922	-5.506	140.4
156	George Mason	18	15	0.414	0.603	0.188	121.5
157	North Texas	18	12	0.395	-5.439	-5.834	86.2
158	UT Arlington	16	16	0.380	-2.746	-3.126	86.5
159	Stony Brook	23	9	0.307	-0.897	-1.204	89.2
160	Bradley	19	15	-0.023	-3.962	-3.938	129.0
161	Abilene Chr	23	7	-0.062	-2.591	-2.529	65.8
162	Lehigh	20	11	-0.085	7.819	7.904	92.6
163	Marshall	23	14	-0.150	9.285	9.435	169.5
164	Wake Forest	11	20	-0.173	0.661	0.835	116.0
165	Duquesne	19	13	-0.283	2.814	3.097	47.7
166	FL Atlantic	14	16	-0.384	-2.941	-2.557	87.5
167	Gardner Webb	20	12	-0.399	2.900	3.299	92.8
168	Charleston So	14	16	-0.433	-0.093	0.340	59.7
169	UC Santa Barbara	20	10	-0.506	-2.153	-1.647	104.4
170	Colorado St	11	20	-0.649	2.443	3.092	158.1
171	NE Omaha	20	11	-0.695	5.001	5.696	84.2
172	Seattle	16	15	-0.732	-1.673	-0.941	122.4
173	St Joseph's PA	14	19	-0.860	2.018	2.878	147.9
174	Winthrop	15	12	-0.868	7.703	8.570	81.3
175	Missouri St	15	16	-0.921	-2.495	-1.574	168.5
176	Louisiana	17	13	-0.964	6.924	7.888	131.8
177	Hampton	15	17	-1.039	6.865	7.903	89.9
178	New Mexico	13	18	-1.107	5.036	6.143	153.7
179	Sam Houston St	18	12	-1.140	0.624	1.765	66.7
180	Presbyterian	17	16	-1.155	3.404	4.560	84.8
181	Northern Iowa	14	18	-1.277	-5.494	-4.217	93.3
182	UTRGV	18	17	-1.298	-0.762	0.535	89.5
183	Hawaii	16	13	-1.335	-1.488	-0.153	132.1
184	Princeton	14	12	-1.359	-3.717	-2.358	99.0
185	NJIT	21	13	-1.414	-2.469	-1.055	86.8
186	WI Green Bay	19	17	-1.529	6.787	8.315	114.3
187	Hartford	17	15	-1.610	2.548	4.158	86.0
188	N Colorado	19	11	-1.657	-1.275	0.382	158.6
189	Ohio	13	17	-1.667	-1.394	0.273	169.1
190	IUPUI	14	17	-1.670	0.346	2.016	55.0
191	Oakland	15	17	-1.682	3.292	4.974	71.3
192	North Florida	14	17	-1.684	3.950	5.634	139.7
193	Mercer	9	20	-1.715	-1.534	0.180	91.2
194	Campbell	17	13	-1.773	0.496	2.269	46.3
195	Richmond	13	20	-1.949	-0.009	1.940	115.0
196	American Univ	15	15	-2.065	-1.612	0.453	87.5
197	PFW	15	15	-2.089	6.687	8.776	248.7
198	Pacific	12	18	-2.134	-4.653	-2.519	59.6
199	Santa Clara	15	15	-2.279	-2.779	-0.499	123.7
200	CS Fullerton	14	18	-2.322	-0.225	2.097	82.7
201	Cal Baptist	12	15	-2.322	3.068	5.389	158.5
202	Illinois St	16	16	-2.364	-1.966	0.398	104.8
203	IL Chicago	14	16	-2.533	0.844	3.377	71.6
204	Rider	16	15	-2.565	4.462	7.027	64.3
205	Washington St	11	21	-2.568	4.252	6.820	172.9
206	Iona	17	16	-2.624	4.639	7.263	74.3
207	N Dakota St	17	16	-2.628	-0.516	2.111	71.0
208	TX Southern	22	14	-2.694	8.649	11.343	139.1
209	Appalachian St	8	21	-2.733	5.651	8.384	75.5
210	Weber St	16	15	-2.736	2.551	5.287	110.0
211	Indiana St	13	16	-2.767	-0.458	2.309	175.2
212	Columbia	8	18	-3.353	0.798	4.151	77.0
213	Valparaiso	13	18	-3.374	-5.818	-2.444	104.9
214	Massachusetts	11	21	-3.391	0.178	3.569	121.0
215	CS Bakersfield	15	16	-3.458	-3.401	0.057	74.7
216	Evansville	9	21	-3.584	-0.776	2.808	123.4
217	Dartmouth	9	19	-3.585	-1.883	1.702	98.0
218	William & Mary	13	17	-3.617	1.460	5.078	60.6
219	Florida Intl	16	14	-3.652	8.084	11.736	138.3
220	FL Gulf Coast	12	18	-3.718	-1.289	2.429	120.3
221	Ark Little Rock	8	21	-3.722	0.080	3.801	118.2
222	F Dickinson	19	14	-3.733	1.062	4.795	138.1
223	Long Beach St	13	19	-3.799	2.060	5.859	58.0
224	Lamar	16	13	-3.805	0.457	4.262	98.9
225	South Alabama	15	17	-3.859	-2.087	1.772	133.1
226	Cornell	13	16	-3.860	-2.292	1.568	118.5
227	High Point	14	15	-3.912	-7.064	-3.153	103.3
228	UMBC	18	13	-3.948	-6.479	-2.530	104.2
229	La Salle	10	21	-4.136	-1.952	2.185	104.6
230	Prairie View	21	13	-4.137	1.316	5.453	123.4
231	Boston Univ	14	18	-4.141	-1.560	2.581	109.3
232	Holy Cross	16	17	-4.192	-5.721	-1.529	87.0
233	South Dakota	11	17	-4.281	-3.276	1.005	137.1
234	Quinnipiac	16	15	-4.403	0.985	5.388	77.4
235	California	8	23	-4.568	-1.481	3.088	91.5
236	Air Force	13	18	-4.617	-2.959	1.659	167.3
237	E Washington	15	18	-4.911	-1.680	3.232	93.3
238	Sacred Heart	14	17	-5.028	4.728	9.756	74.8
239	Army	12	19	-5.056	-3.333	1.723	79.1
240	Troy	10	18	-5.194	-1.314	3.880	84.4
241	UC Davis	9	20	-5.242	-6.558	-1.315	75.6
242	Missouri KC	10	21	-5.242	-3.659	1.583	127.5
243	MA Lowell	13	17	-5.389	3.162	8.551	154.6
244	Detroit	11	20	-5.425	1.663	7.087	169.0
245	Fordham	11	20	-5.431	-7.340	-1.909	107.6
246	W Michigan	7	24	-5.501	-1.207	4.294	96.7
247	Norfolk St	19	14	-5.514	-1.941	3.573	76.6
248	CS Northridge	12	21	-5.655	4.425	10.080	71.0
249	SE Louisiana	15	16	-5.680	-7.308	-1.628	141.3
250	Rice	11	19	-5.791	3.144	8.935	106.4
251	MTSU	9	21	-5.797	-4.822	0.975	68.3
252	Siena	17	16	-5.812	-8.274	-2.462	89.3
253	Arkansas St	11	19	-5.890	0.599	6.489	59.8
254	Montana St	14	17	-5.951	3.880	9.832	104.7
255	Drexel	12	19	-5.957	1.915	7.873	89.3
256	LIU Brooklyn	15	16	-5.961	-0.714	5.247	89.6
257	E Kentucky	11	18	-6.017	7.227	13.244	103.8
258	Jacksonville	10	20	-6.072	-0.268	5.804	123.3
259	Longwood	13	18	-6.200	-3.949	2.251	118.6
260	St Francis PA	16	15	-6.256	0.265	6.521	99.3
261	Morehead St	11	20	-6.329	-1.868	4.461	52.2
262	East Carolina	10	21	-6.354	-2.978	3.377	76.7
263	Delaware	15	16	-6.356	-3.029	3.327	132.6
264	Chattanooga	9	20	-6.475	-3.441	3.034	80.2
265	Marist	12	19	-6.526	-5.836	0.690	100.3
266	CS Sacramento	12	16	-6.588	-4.989	1.599	90.1
267	Loyola MD	11	21	-6.613	-0.390	6.222	101.9
268	Citadel	9	18	-6.722	8.492	15.214	150.8
269	Youngstown St	10	20	-6.736	0.596	7.333	127.3
270	Canisius	15	17	-6.843	-1.428	5.415	67.8
271	Robert Morris	16	17	-6.902	-6.963	-0.061	75.3
272	SUNY Albany	11	20	-6.912	-5.228	1.684	129.0
273	Grambling	14	17	-6.913	-4.332	2.581	98.8
274	North Dakota	8	18	-6.949	-3.024	3.925	96.0
275	Southern Utah	15	17	-6.976	-1.427	5.549	147.3
276	G Washington	9	24	-7.050	-5.168	1.882	115.7
277	UNC Wilmington	9	23	-7.056	2.424	9.480	85.7
278	New Orleans	15	14	-7.198	-3.850	3.348	93.8
279	James Madison	12	19	-7.213	-4.047	3.166	94.8
280	St Francis NY	15	16	-7.293	-5.183	2.111	76.7
281	TAM C. Christi	10	18	-7.323	-9.557	-2.234	61.6
282	Towson	9	22	-7.340	-6.133	1.208	107.7
283	Portland St	13	16	-7.422	-0.041	7.381	67.0
284	Houston Bap	10	18	-7.425	6.930	14.355	97.7
285	Cleveland St	8	21	-7.495	-0.183	7.312	109.7
286	Tulane	4	27	-7.501	-3.209	4.292	80.0
287	W Carolina	6	25	-7.713	-0.154	7.559	122.5
288	Navy	12	19	-7.794	-6.071	1.723	105.3
289	Fairfield	9	22	-7.814	-4.962	2.852	69.6
290	WI Milwaukee	8	22	-7.900	-5.243	2.656	87.2
291	UTEP	6	21	-7.912	-8.461	-0.549	83.9
292	Oral Roberts	9	21	-8.003	-1.889	6.115	109.5
293	W Illinois	8	21	-8.244	-5.507	2.738	161.2
294	Charlotte	8	21	-8.298	-9.763	-1.465	126.8
295	North Alabama	7	22	-8.444	-5.729	2.715	73.3
296	Monmouth NJ	14	21	-8.485	-7.530	0.955	127.2
297	Northern Arizona	10	21	-8.488	-1.194	7.293	110.6
298	NC A&T	17	13	-8.573	-6.217	2.355	91.3
299	NC Central	15	16	-8.674	-7.181	1.493	87.6
300	Lafayette	9	20	-8.839	0.146	8.984	107.5
301	VMI	8	21	-9.041	2.488	11.529	155.1
302	Niagara	13	19	-9.229	0.146	9.374	124.8
303	TN Martin	10	19	-9.245	0.572	9.817	85.5
304	SF Austin	10	16	-9.408	-4.615	4.793	108.9
305	Cent Arkansas	11	19	-9.409	-0.628	8.781	150.8
306	Howard	14	17	-9.495	1.706	11.201	95.0
307	Bethune-Cookman	12	17	-9.497	-3.194	6.303	108.4
308	Nicholls St	10	17	-9.517	-2.867	6.650	142.5
309	SE Missouri St	8	21	-9.641	-3.773	5.868	95.4
310	Tennessee St	7	21	-9.765	-3.073	6.692	144.3
311	St Peter's	10	22	-9.868	-10.085	-0.217	81.0
312	UC Riverside	7	23	-9.868	-8.674	1.194	125.4
313	Wagner	11	17	-10.053	-11.366	-1.313	158.5
314	E Illinois	13	18	-10.160	-3.249	6.911	163.2
315	Denver	7	22	-10.163	-3.783	6.380	142.6
316	Wyoming	7	24	-10.199	-6.144	4.055	87.0
317	Elon	9	21	-10.351	-3.638	6.712	143.0
318	Portland	5	25	-10.429	-6.844	3.586	82.2
319	Florida A&M	10	19	-10.671	-12.941	-2.270	133.6
320	Manhattan	11	21	-10.701	-15.895	-5.195	97.3
321	Idaho St	9	19	-10.911	-1.789	9.122	118.3
322	Central Conn	9	20	-11.038	-2.548	8.490	153.1
323	Ark Pine Bluff	12	19	-11.310	-7.124	4.186	146.4
324	Binghamton	8	23	-11.630	-8.245	3.386	131.7
325	Mt St Mary's	7	22	-11.637	-7.453	4.184	116.9
326	Jackson St	11	19	-11.813	-13.085	-1.272	83.2
327	McNeese St	6	21	-12.252	-5.729	6.523	103.6
328	Maine	4	27	-12.458	-9.789	2.668	111.8
329	Cal Poly	4	23	-12.604	-5.391	7.212	115.5
330	Bryant	10	20	-12.635	-4.199	8.436	119.1
331	Alabama St	10	19	-12.649	-7.390	5.260	101.5
332	SIUE	8	21	-13.051	-2.229	10.822	87.4
333	SC Upstate	3	26	-13.196	-7.267	5.929	84.1
334	Stetson	5	24	-13.227	-3.832	9.395	100.1
335	Tennessee Tech	6	23	-13.277	-10.569	2.708	111.9
336	Morgan St	8	20	-13.435	-3.387	10.048	98.7
337	S Carolina St	6	26	-13.767	-4.963	8.805	45.7
338	Southern Univ	6	25	-14.054	-9.017	5.037	93.0
339	Kennesaw	4	26	-14.610	-9.185	5.425	110.5
340	Northwestern LA	8	20	-15.103	-9.484	5.619	110.3
341	Coppin St	8	25	-16.107	-8.923	7.183	94.5
342	New Hampshire	3	24	-16.121	-15.606	0.514	82.2
343	Alabama A&M	5	27	-16.685	-13.328	3.357	67.7
344	San Jose St	3	27	-16.716	-6.299	10.417	127.6
345	Idaho	3	26	-16.774	-8.705	8.069	98.3
346	Incarnate Word	2	25	-16.960	-7.757	9.203	85.0
347	UNC Asheville	2	26	-17.576	-14.466	3.109	99.4
348	Savannah St	10	20	-17.735	1.908	19.642	112.8
349	Alcorn St	6	21	-18.996	-13.466	5.530	80.8
350	MS Valley St	5	26	-19.748	-9.169	10.578	150.2
351	MD E Shore	5	25	-21.501	-18.136	3.365	91.3
352	Chicago St	1	29	-23.169	-9.433	13.737	112.5
353	Delaware St	4	25	-23.834	-13.373	10.461	116.1

Machine Learning

This is also pretty simple and useful, but approaches the problem in a different way. A small neural network is given raw game outcome data (team A defeated team B, not the score). The neural network learns which teams are better than others (more likely to win), and learns to predict winners of matchups. The Projected W% column shows the estimated winning percentage of each team if they played every other team an equal number of times.

	Team	W	L	vs All W%	vs T40 W%
1	Virginia	35	3	0.97513	0.85517
2	Duke	32	6	0.96104	0.79205
3	Michigan St	32	7	0.94455	0.71465
4	Kentucky	30	7	0.94257	0.70143
5	Gonzaga	33	4	0.94176	0.69232
6	Tennessee	30	6	0.93896	0.68466
7	Texas Tech	31	7	0.93889	0.68592
8	North Carolina	29	7	0.93841	0.68499
9	Houston	33	4	0.93409	0.66465
10	Michigan	30	7	0.93130	0.65467
11	Florida St	29	8	0.92215	0.61612
12	Auburn	29	10	0.91743	0.60356
13	LSU	28	7	0.91551	0.60201
14	Kansas	26	10	0.91230	0.57433
15	Purdue	26	10	0.90612	0.56163
16	Wofford	27	5	0.90599	0.55638
17	Buffalo	31	4	0.90011	0.52770
18	Virginia Tech	26	9	0.89235	0.50666
19	Cincinnati	28	7	0.88401	0.49378
20	Kansas St	25	9	0.87853	0.48632
21	Wisconsin	23	11	0.87692	0.45880
22	Maryland	23	11	0.86132	0.42641
23	Iowa St	23	12	0.85479	0.42499
24	Mississippi St	23	11	0.85269	0.39333
25	Villanova	26	10	0.85167	0.39555
26	Iowa	23	12	0.84757	0.38058
27	Marquette	24	10	0.84470	0.38548
28	Murray St	26	5	0.84226	0.38164
29	Washington	27	9	0.83485	0.35985
30	UNC Greensboro	27	7	0.83395	0.34404
31	UCF	24	9	0.83333	0.34694
32	Nevada	29	5	0.83304	0.36658
33	Belmont	26	6	0.83238	0.36294
34	Minnesota	22	14	0.83063	0.35125
35	Oklahoma	20	14	0.82959	0.35051
36	Lipscomb	27	8	0.82358	0.33947
37	Louisville	20	14	0.81943	0.33304
38	Utah St	27	7	0.81245	0.31404
39	Texas	21	16	0.81008	0.32405
40	TCU	23	14	0.80701	0.30151
41	Baylor	20	14	0.80597	0.30856
42	NC State	24	12	0.80453	0.29688
43	Ohio St	20	15	0.80327	0.29859
44	Florida	20	16	0.80045	0.30369
45	Temple	23	10	0.79562	0.27760
46	UC Irvine	30	6	0.78973	0.28307
47	New Mexico St	28	5	0.78811	0.26793
48	VCU	25	8	0.78766	0.27935
49	Liberty	26	7	0.78672	0.27674
50	Mississippi	20	13	0.78635	0.27934
51	Seton Hall	20	14	0.78002	0.27945
52	Arizona St	23	11	0.77990	0.27034
53	Nebraska	18	17	0.77629	0.24968
54	Syracuse	20	14	0.77501	0.25195
55	Oregon	25	13	0.77049	0.26773
56	Toledo	24	8	0.76226	0.24137
57	Alabama	18	16	0.76094	0.24232
58	St John's	21	13	0.75922	0.24286
59	Furman	22	8	0.75887	0.23766
60	Clemson	20	14	0.75885	0.22297
61	St Mary's CA	22	12	0.75785	0.22311
62	Indiana	19	16	0.75553	0.23059
63	Wichita St	22	15	0.75441	0.22899
64	Memphis	22	14	0.75149	0.21520
65	Creighton	19	15	0.74991	0.21063
66	Vermont	26	7	0.74498	0.20665
67	Yale	21	8	0.73605	0.19889
68	Hofstra	26	8	0.73486	0.19531
69	Xavier	19	16	0.73001	0.19348
70	Northeastern	23	11	0.72744	0.18913
71	Penn St	14	18	0.71896	0.18269
72	Arkansas	18	16	0.71795	0.18082
73	Georgetown	19	14	0.71694	0.17934
74	South Carolina	15	16	0.71623	0.19001
75	Georgia St	23	10	0.71065	0.17957
76	Old Dominion	26	9	0.71001	0.17903
77	Davidson	23	10	0.70873	0.17218
78	ETSU	22	10	0.70358	0.16398
79	Missouri	15	17	0.70297	0.16290
80	Butler	16	17	0.70085	0.15567
81	Providence	18	16	0.69707	0.17006
82	Col Charleston	23	9	0.69464	0.15425
83	Oklahoma St	12	20	0.68884	0.16216
84	Colorado	23	13	0.68434	0.14626
85	West Virginia	15	21	0.68284	0.15016
86	Harvard	18	12	0.68175	0.16070
87	South Florida	23	14	0.68152	0.14699
88	Fresno St	22	9	0.67776	0.14551
89	Tulsa	18	14	0.67596	0.14029
90	Dayton	21	12	0.67549	0.14215
91	Rutgers	14	17	0.67549	0.14923
92	BYU	19	13	0.67168	0.14774
93	Kent	20	11	0.66984	0.13292
94	WKU	20	14	0.66951	0.14171
95	Utah Valley	23	10	0.66825	0.12879
96	Texas A&M	14	18	0.66640	0.13819
97	Bowling Green	20	12	0.66268	0.13557
98	Oregon St	18	13	0.66188	0.13361
99	San Francisco	20	10	0.66075	0.12988
100	Arizona	17	15	0.65999	0.13499
101	St Louis	23	13	0.65822	0.13178
102	San Diego	20	15	0.65471	0.12619
103	Drake	22	10	0.65385	0.13410
104	N Kentucky	24	9	0.65236	0.13014
105	Utah	17	14	0.65134	0.12890
106	Jacksonville St	22	9	0.65027	0.12806
107	Penn	18	12	0.64930	0.12972
108	San Diego St	20	13	0.64844	0.12541
109	Montana	24	9	0.64394	0.12117
110	UCLA	17	16	0.64014	0.11596
111	Ga Southern	19	12	0.63843	0.11590
112	Colgate	23	11	0.63820	0.11875
113	DePaul	19	17	0.63791	0.11904
114	Marshall	23	14	0.63714	0.11607
115	Loy Marymount	20	12	0.63614	0.11531
116	C Michigan	20	12	0.63451	0.11521
117	Connecticut	16	17	0.62865	0.10720
118	Illinois	12	21	0.62568	0.11391
119	Southern Miss	17	12	0.62464	0.11113
120	Miami FL	14	18	0.62004	0.10264
121	Abilene Chr	23	7	0.61943	0.10609
122	Stony Brook	23	9	0.61849	0.10830
123	Austin Peay	20	11	0.61309	0.09586
124	Texas St	22	10	0.61305	0.10820
125	SMU	15	17	0.61229	0.09583
126	Bucknell	21	12	0.61191	0.10354
127	Northwestern	13	19	0.60814	0.09593
128	Radford	19	11	0.60587	0.10779
129	Stanford	15	16	0.60074	0.09036
130	Georgia Tech	14	18	0.59520	0.09608
131	Brown	18	12	0.59424	0.09742
132	Boston College	14	17	0.59401	0.09659
133	S Dakota St	23	9	0.59314	0.09160
134	Louisiana Tech	18	13	0.59250	0.09189
135	Grand Canyon	19	14	0.58548	0.08379
136	Notre Dame	14	19	0.58516	0.08363
137	Rhode Island	18	15	0.58379	0.09437
138	USC	16	17	0.58367	0.08289
139	Lehigh	20	11	0.58349	0.08195
140	Pittsburgh	14	19	0.58158	0.08362
141	Princeton	14	12	0.57799	0.08829
142	UAB	18	15	0.57093	0.08769
143	Loyola-Chicago	19	14	0.56887	0.08172
144	Gardner Webb	20	12	0.56713	0.08591
145	Georgia	11	21	0.56696	0.07565
146	North Texas	18	12	0.56528	0.07331
147	UT San Antonio	14	14	0.56502	0.07683
148	NE Omaha	20	11	0.55117	0.07440
149	Bradley	19	15	0.54866	0.07470
150	NJIT	21	13	0.54463	0.07363
151	Wright St	19	14	0.54404	0.06747
152	St Bonaventure	18	16	0.54026	0.07098
153	Florida Intl	16	14	0.54020	0.07539
154	S Illinois	17	15	0.53900	0.07028
155	Akron	15	16	0.53834	0.06669
156	Ohio	13	17	0.53621	0.06675
157	UT Arlington	16	16	0.53562	0.06897
158	Duquesne	19	13	0.53559	0.06513
159	N Illinois	15	17	0.53486	0.07203
160	George Mason	18	15	0.53461	0.06821
161	WI Green Bay	19	17	0.52869	0.06463
162	Ball St	15	17	0.52746	0.06977
163	Louisiana	17	13	0.52724	0.06555
164	Miami OH	13	17	0.52498	0.06551
165	E Michigan	11	17	0.52033	0.06462
166	UC Santa Barbara	20	10	0.51742	0.06099
167	Wake Forest	11	20	0.51383	0.06119
168	Northern Iowa	14	18	0.51164	0.05691
169	Illinois St	16	16	0.51139	0.05741
170	UNLV	17	14	0.50831	0.05762
171	Sam Houston St	18	12	0.50289	0.05642
172	Santa Clara	15	15	0.49957	0.05544
173	Missouri St	15	16	0.49559	0.05838
174	FL Atlantic	14	16	0.49481	0.06087
175	TX Southern	22	14	0.49426	0.06193
176	Winthrop	15	12	0.49352	0.05410
177	UTRGV	18	17	0.48999	0.05690
178	North Florida	14	17	0.48821	0.05450
179	Indiana St	13	16	0.48598	0.05350
180	Cornell	13	16	0.48571	0.05219
181	N Colorado	19	11	0.48570	0.05372
182	Prairie View	21	13	0.48122	0.04823
183	ULM	18	16	0.47837	0.05347
184	Pepperdine	15	18	0.47804	0.05627
185	St Joseph's PA	14	19	0.47796	0.05082
186	Campbell	17	13	0.47566	0.05228
187	Samford	16	16	0.47322	0.05033
188	Vanderbilt	9	23	0.47299	0.04577
189	CS Bakersfield	15	16	0.46171	0.04585
190	Delaware	15	16	0.45278	0.04345
191	Holy Cross	16	17	0.45252	0.04409
192	Coastal Car	15	17	0.45193	0.04495
193	F Dickinson	19	14	0.44808	0.04332
194	N Dakota St	17	16	0.44581	0.04303
195	William & Mary	13	17	0.44357	0.04264
196	UMBC	18	13	0.44258	0.04474
197	Hawaii	16	13	0.44094	0.04218
198	IL Chicago	14	16	0.43902	0.04049
199	Presbyterian	17	16	0.43591	0.03893
200	Seattle	16	15	0.43313	0.04008
201	Pacific	12	18	0.43284	0.03903
202	Valparaiso	13	18	0.43127	0.04006
203	Hartford	17	15	0.43054	0.04051
204	Weber St	16	15	0.42331	0.03916
205	Lamar	16	13	0.42000	0.03812
206	CS Fullerton	14	18	0.41991	0.03617
207	New Mexico	13	18	0.41554	0.03775
208	Oakland	15	17	0.41494	0.03714
209	High Point	14	15	0.41161	0.03617
210	E Washington	15	18	0.40514	0.03459
211	Long Beach St	13	19	0.40261	0.03353
212	IUPUI	14	17	0.40180	0.03505
213	FL Gulf Coast	12	18	0.40169	0.03529
214	Cal Baptist	12	15	0.40066	0.03533
215	Iona	17	16	0.40041	0.03397
216	American Univ	15	15	0.39871	0.03646
217	PFW	15	15	0.39753	0.03488
218	St Francis PA	16	15	0.39437	0.03132
219	Norfolk St	19	14	0.39348	0.03234
220	Charleston So	14	16	0.39286	0.03357
221	Hampton	15	17	0.39188	0.03138
222	New Orleans	15	14	0.39135	0.03330
223	South Alabama	15	17	0.38802	0.03305
224	Siena	17	16	0.38511	0.03177
225	Arkansas St	11	19	0.38376	0.03144
226	Rider	16	15	0.38286	0.02978
227	Drexel	12	19	0.37972	0.02912
228	Navy	12	19	0.37789	0.03213
229	Detroit	11	20	0.37726	0.02909
230	Boise St	12	20	0.37548	0.02913
231	Southern Utah	15	17	0.37307	0.02984
232	MTSU	9	21	0.37271	0.02875
233	Boston Univ	14	18	0.37147	0.03143
234	Canisius	15	17	0.37122	0.03096
235	Evansville	9	21	0.37044	0.02842
236	Rice	11	19	0.36792	0.02949
237	Troy	10	18	0.36737	0.03061
238	Air Force	13	18	0.36498	0.02808
239	Morehead St	11	20	0.36396	0.02672
240	James Madison	12	19	0.36199	0.03034
241	Robert Morris	16	17	0.36153	0.02708
242	California	8	23	0.36068	0.02823
243	Washington St	11	21	0.35827	0.02727
244	E Kentucky	11	18	0.35656	0.02831
245	Colorado St	11	20	0.35412	0.02748
246	East Carolina	10	21	0.35338	0.02611
247	NC A&T	17	13	0.35168	0.02606
248	Montana St	14	17	0.34881	0.02504
249	Columbia	8	18	0.34699	0.02613
250	SE Louisiana	15	16	0.34644	0.02652
251	Portland St	13	16	0.34474	0.02542
252	Citadel	9	18	0.34402	0.02707
253	Richmond	13	20	0.34256	0.02513
254	St Francis NY	15	16	0.34245	0.02457
255	Quinnipiac	16	15	0.34071	0.02627
256	MA Lowell	13	17	0.33989	0.02571
257	Missouri KC	10	21	0.33841	0.02372
258	Army	12	19	0.33610	0.02387
259	Mercer	9	20	0.33272	0.02272
260	Sacred Heart	14	17	0.33119	0.02401
261	La Salle	10	21	0.33055	0.02301
262	Appalachian St	8	21	0.32996	0.02270
263	Massachusetts	11	21	0.32815	0.02457
264	CS Sacramento	12	16	0.32696	0.02275
265	Youngstown St	10	20	0.32368	0.02342
266	Monmouth NJ	14	21	0.32349	0.02259
267	LIU Brooklyn	15	16	0.32210	0.02391
268	South Dakota	11	17	0.32128	0.02288
269	E Illinois	13	18	0.31792	0.02370
270	Loyola MD	11	21	0.31673	0.02194
271	UNC Wilmington	9	23	0.31576	0.02259
272	Longwood	13	18	0.31096	0.02233
273	Dartmouth	9	19	0.30664	0.02005
274	Charlotte	8	21	0.30137	0.02034
275	Chattanooga	9	20	0.30011	0.02069
276	Wagner	11	17	0.28960	0.01916
277	G Washington	9	24	0.28853	0.01863
278	Lafayette	9	20	0.28738	0.01992
279	UC Davis	9	20	0.28702	0.01824
280	Elon	9	21	0.28697	0.01888
281	CS Northridge	12	21	0.28519	0.01854
282	Fordham	11	20	0.28220	0.01897
283	Oral Roberts	9	21	0.28134	0.01883
284	TN Martin	10	19	0.28008	0.01823
285	Idaho St	9	19	0.27842	0.01818
286	Cent Arkansas	11	19	0.27828	0.01844
287	Ark Little Rock	8	21	0.27700	0.01793
288	VMI	8	21	0.27392	0.01695
289	TAM C. Christi	10	18	0.27199	0.01746
290	Towson	9	22	0.27002	0.01772
291	W Michigan	7	24	0.26560	0.01637
292	Howard	14	17	0.26294	0.01742
293	Marist	12	19	0.26217	0.01647
294	Jacksonville	10	20	0.26197	0.01728
295	SF Austin	10	16	0.26046	0.01611
296	Northern Arizona	10	21	0.25737	0.01618
297	North Alabama	7	22	0.25616	0.01487
298	NC Central	15	16	0.25603	0.01536
299	Cleveland St	8	21	0.25590	0.01617
300	Niagara	13	19	0.25522	0.01662
301	Nicholls St	10	17	0.25481	0.01544
302	Central Conn	9	20	0.25475	0.01601
303	Houston Bap	10	18	0.25071	0.01481
304	SUNY Albany	11	20	0.24912	0.01569
305	Grambling	14	17	0.24834	0.01542
306	North Dakota	8	18	0.24539	0.01439
307	WI Milwaukee	8	22	0.23959	0.01410
308	Bryant	10	20	0.23628	0.01389
309	Ark Pine Bluff	12	19	0.23568	0.01385
310	Manhattan	11	21	0.23281	0.01367
311	W Carolina	6	25	0.22973	0.01305
312	SE Missouri St	8	21	0.22799	0.01316
313	UC Riverside	7	23	0.22040	0.01316
314	UTEP	6	21	0.21981	0.01251
315	Florida A&M	10	19	0.21420	0.01281
316	St Peter's	10	22	0.20896	0.01193
317	SIUE	8	21	0.20602	0.01118
318	Bethune-Cookman	12	17	0.20244	0.01155
319	Tennessee St	7	21	0.19966	0.01147
320	Mt St Mary's	7	22	0.19964	0.01167
321	Alabama St	10	19	0.19962	0.01108
322	Tulane	4	27	0.19230	0.01064
323	Fairfield	9	22	0.19126	0.01086
324	Denver	7	22	0.18949	0.01064
325	Wyoming	7	24	0.18905	0.01083
326	Jackson St	11	19	0.18888	0.01021
327	W Illinois	8	21	0.18878	0.01050
328	Binghamton	8	23	0.18228	0.01025
329	Northwestern LA	8	20	0.18169	0.01022
330	Tennessee Tech	6	23	0.16960	0.00918
331	Portland	5	25	0.16633	0.00871
332	McNeese St	6	21	0.15924	0.00838
333	Savannah St	10	20	0.15220	0.00778
334	Kennesaw	4	26	0.13235	0.00703
335	Cal Poly	4	23	0.12097	0.00621
336	Stetson	5	24	0.12059	0.00620
337	Coppin St	8	25	0.11894	0.00640
338	Morgan St	8	20	0.11418	0.00604
339	San Jose St	3	27	0.10670	0.00558
340	Alcorn St	6	21	0.10544	0.00554
341	Idaho	3	26	0.09921	0.00506
342	Maine	4	27	0.09652	0.00494
343	Southern Univ	6	25	0.09604	0.00499
344	S Carolina St	6	26	0.08891	0.00449
345	MS Valley St	5	26	0.08447	0.00437
346	Alabama A&M	5	27	0.08098	0.00433
347	MD E Shore	5	25	0.07339	0.00391
348	Chicago St	1	29	0.07280	0.00377
349	SC Upstate	3	26	0.07147	0.00391
350	New Hampshire	3	24	0.07057	0.00388
351	Incarnate Word	2	25	0.06687	0.00360
352	UNC Asheville	2	26	0.06523	0.00353
353	Delaware St	4	25	0.06505	0.00355